Friday, 26 October 2012
The Long View
One of the advantages that the private investor has over the institutional investor is the ability to take a long view. As there are no hordes of policy holders banging on the doors demanding a redemption, the private investor can sit and wait. It would of course be encouraging to have a percentage increase in one's investments on a yearly basis, but this is not always possible. Those who claim such an ability are like the sirens. Take B Maddoff for example. Patience is a virtue few investors have.
The past 12 years has been a great time to be an investor, if you are actively saving and are willing to take a long view. As long as you make some sensible investment decisions and don't be panicked into overtrading, the future looks rosy. The reason that I am confident of this, is that major markets move in cycles. These cycles tend to last about 17 years, the last boom beginning in about 1983 and ending in 2000. We are 2/3rds of the way through the present secular bear market for equities and as an active saver at present, I am happy. In 1983, as modern economies were emerging from an horrible period, the foundation of a major stock market boom was becoming established. Inflation, albeit high, was reducing and economic growth was progressing. Low inflation combined with economic growth is ideal for equities. The tech crash in 2000 ushered in the start of the secular bear market and since then we have had low growth and relatively high inflation; bad for equities, which have gone nowhere. Since then, valuations have been gradually reducing to levels associated with the bottom of secular bear markets and we have the added bonus of industrial revolutions occurring in many populous nations. If the cycle theory is wrong, it sure doesn't look like it from where I'm lying.
Tuesday, 23 October 2012
Ignore the "experts"
Welcome friend(s). I'm going to share my investments/trades, whatever you want to call them, with you. I've no ulterior motives for doing this other than sharing information with interested readers. It's meant for interest only and not advice, but I eat what I cook. I've been investing since 2001, so these are my thoughts now. My present investments will become apparent over time. I work from my couch, shared by my 2 dogs and cats, and like to spend as little time as possible studying the markets.
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